User:HOFMANN58D/702 Research - Revision history

HOFMANN58D at 18:45, 29 August 2022

2022-08-29T18:45:53Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:45, 29 August 2022
Line 360:		Line 360:
	!style="text-align:center;"\|Body Part		!style="text-align:center;"\|Body Part
	!style="text-align:center;"\|Rate		!style="text-align:center;"\|Rate
			\|-
	\|\|Abdomen \|\|12.7%		\|\|Abdomen \|\|12.7%
	\|-		\|-

HOFMANN58D at 18:45, 29 August 2022

2022-08-29T18:45:02Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:45, 29 August 2022
Line 283:		Line 283:
	*max crit rank		*max crit rank
	*full damage messages		*full damage messages

			.

			.

			.

			Updates with lesser orc and lesser burrow orc data:

			{\| class="wikitable"
			\|-
			!\|
			!style="text-align:center;" colspan="2"\|Success Margin
			!\|
			!style="text-align:center;" colspan="2"\|Raw Damage
			\|-
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Damage Message
			!\|Min
			!\|Max
			!\|
			!\|Min
			!\|Max
			\|-
			\|\|A weak blow\|\|1\|\|5\|\|\|\|4\|\|4
			\|-
			\|\|A light strike\|\|1\|\|10\|\|\|\|5\|\|9
			\|-
			\|\|A nice hit\|\|1\|\|39\|\|\|\|10\|\|14
			\|-
			\|\|A strong strike\|\|6\|\|60\|\|\|\|15\|\|19
			\|-
			\|\|A painful blow\|\|6\|\|91\|\|\|\|20\|\|24
			\|-
			\|\|Target staggered by strong strike\|\|11\|\|94\|\|\|\|25\|\|29
			\|-
			\|\|A powerful hit\|\|11\|\|92\|\|\|\|30\|\|34
			\|-
			\|\|A very painful blow\|\|21\|\|92\|\|\|\|35\|\|39
			\|-
			\|\|Target staggers in pain\|\|21\|\|96\|\|\|\|40\|\|44
			\|-
			\|\|A masterful strike\|\|41\|\|95\|\|\|\|45\|\|49
			\|-
			\|\|A most painful blow\|\|41\|\|92\|\|\|\|50\|\|54
			\|-
			\|\|Target reels from brutal strike\|\|62\|\|96\|\|\|\|55\|\|59
			\|-
			\|\|A devastating hit\|\|61\|\|96\|\|\|\|60\|\|64
			\|-
			\|\|Massive internal disruption\|\|81\|\|97\|\|\|\|65\|\|70
			\|}

			{\| class="wikitable"
			\|-
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Success Margin
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Min
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Max
			\|-
			\|\|1-5\|\|4\|\|13
			\|-
			\|\|6-10\|\|7\|\|22
			\|-
			\|\|11-20\|\|10\|\|31
			\|-
			\|\|21-40\|\|13\|\|40
			\|-
			\|\|41-60\|\|17\|\|51
			\|-
			\|\|61-80\|\|20\|\|61
			\|-
			\|\|81-??\|\|23\|\|70
			\|}

			{\| class="wikitable"
			\|-
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Body Part
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Rate
			\|\|Abdomen \|\|12.7%
			\|-
			\|\|Back \|\|11.4%
			\|-
			\|\|Chest \|\|14.6%
			\|-
			\|\|Head \|\|06.1%
			\|-
			\|\|Left Arm \|\|10.7%
			\|-
			\|\|Left Eye \|\|01.1%
			\|-
			\|\|Left Hand \|\|02.2%
			\|-
			\|\|Left Leg \|\|06.3%
			\|-
			\|\|Neck \|\|06.1%
			\|-
			\|\|Right Arm \|\|10.1%
			\|-
			\|\|Right Eye \|\|02.6%
			\|-
			\|\|Right Hand \|\|06.0%
			\|-
			\|\|Right Leg \|\|10.1%
			\|}

			{\| class="wikitable"
			\|-
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Success Margin
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Raw
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Crit
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Total
			\|-
			\|\|1-5\|\|8.5\|\|6.5\|\|15
			\|-
			\|\|6-10\|\|14.5\|\|6.5\|\|21
			\|-
			\|\|11-20\|\|20.5\|\|10\|\|30.5
			\|-
			\|\|21-40\|\|26.5\|\|15\|\|41.5
			\|-
			\|\|41-60\|\|34\|\|15\|\|49
			\|-
			\|\|61-80\|\|40\|\|20\|\|60
			\|-
			\|\|81-??\|\|46.5\|\|20\|\|66.5
			\|}

			The crit ranks generated in the 81-?? range show no evidence of being different than the crit ranks generated in the 61-80 range, and the additional body part locations do not change the first tier's (rounded) expected crit damage of 4.7. I have added the additional data to the raw data page, and updated the main 702 page.

HOFMANN58D at 18:27, 3 August 2022

2022-08-03T18:27:01Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:27, 3 August 2022
Line 72:		Line 72:
	\|\|41-60\|\|17\|\|51		\|\|41-60\|\|17\|\|51
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|61-??\|\|20\|\|60		\|\|61-??\|\|20\|\|59
	\|}		\|}

HOFMANN58D at 16:44, 3 August 2022

2022-08-03T16:44:28Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:44, 3 August 2022
Line 134:		Line 134:
	\|}		\|}

			If we assume raw damage values are distributed symmetrically within a success margin range, the true values are:
	Estimating based on symmetry, my guess for the true values is:

	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"
Line 148:		Line 148:
	\|\|A weak blow\|\|10.0%\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-		\|\|A weak blow\|\|10.0%\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|A light strike\|\|50.0%\|\|16.7%\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-		\|\|A light strike\|\|50.0%\|\|18.8%\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|A nice hit\|\|40.0%\|\|33.3%\|\|22.2%\|\|5.0%\|\|-\|\|-		\|\|A nice hit\|\|40.0%\|\|31.3%\|\|22.7%\|\|7.1%\|\|-\|\|-
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|A strong strike\|\|-\|\|33.3%\|\|22.2%\|\|18.0%\|\|5.0%\|\|-		\|\|A strong strike\|\|-\|\|31.3%\|\|22.7%\|\|17.9%\|\|8.6%\|\|-
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|A painful blow\|\|-\|\|16.7%\|\|22.2%\|\|18.0%\|\|15.0%\|\|12.5%		\|\|A painful blow\|\|-\|\|18.8%\|\|22.7%\|\|17.9%\|\|14.3%\|\|12.5%
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|Target staggered by strong strike\|\|-\|\|-\|\|22.2%\|\|18.0%\|\|15.0%\|\|12.5%		\|\|Target staggered by strong strike\|\|-\|\|-\|\|22.7%\|\|17.9%\|\|14.3%\|\|12.5%
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|A powerful hit\|\|-\|\|-\|\|11.1%\|\|18.0%\|\|15.0%\|\|12.5%		\|\|A powerful hit\|\|-\|\|-\|\|9.1%\|\|17.9%\|\|14.3%\|\|12.5%
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|A very painful blow\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|18.0%\|\|15.0%\|\|12.5%		\|\|A very painful blow\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|17.9%\|\|14.3%\|\|12.5%
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|Target staggers in pain\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|5.0%\|\|15.0%\|\|12.5%		\|\|Target staggers in pain\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|3.6%\|\|14.3%\|\|12.5%
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|A masterful strike\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|15.0%\|\|12.5%		\|\|A masterful strike\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|14.3%\|\|12.5%
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|A most painful blow\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|5.0%\|\|12.5%		\|\|A most painful blow\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|5.7%\|\|12.5%
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|Target reels from brutal strike\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|12.5%		\|\|Target reels from brutal strike\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|12.5%
	\|}		\|}

	~~Using~~ ~~this~~ we can generate an average expected raw damage per range, ~~where~~ "observed" uses the observed rate of damage messages and "model" uses my proposed values.		This suggests raw damage is distributed symmetrically and the damage message is assigned after, so we can generate an average expected raw damage per range by simply averaging the minimum and maximum. In the following table "observed" uses the observed rate of damage messages and "model" uses these proposed values.

	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"
Line 179:		Line 179:
	!style="text-align:center;"\|Model		!style="text-align:center;"\|Model
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|1-5\|\|8.5\|\|8.7		\|\|1-5\|\|8.5\|\|8.5
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|6-10\|\|15.1\|\|14.5		\|\|6-10\|\|15.1\|\|14.5
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|11-20\|\|20.0\|\|20.7		\|\|11-20\|\|20.0\|\|20.5
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|21-40\|\|26.4\|\|27.0		\|\|21-40\|\|26.4\|\|26.5
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|41-60\|\|33.7\|\|34.5		\|\|41-60\|\|33.7\|\|34
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|61-??\|\|39.7\|\|~~39.5~~		\|\|61-??\|\|39.7\|\|40
	\|}		\|}

	Using the model gives an average raw damage per cast for a character with 80 endroll before d100 of 23.4.		Using the model gives an average raw damage per cast for a character with 80 endroll before d100 of 23.3.

	.		.
Line 263:		Line 263:
	!style="text-align:center;"\|Total		!style="text-align:center;"\|Total
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|1-5\|\|8.7\|\|6.5\|\|15.1		\|\|1-5\|\|8.5\|\|6.5\|\|15
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|6-10\|\|14.5\|\|6.5\|\|21.0		\|\|6-10\|\|14.5\|\|6.5\|\|21
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|11-20\|\|20.7\|\|10\|\|30.7		\|\|11-20\|\|20.5\|\|10\|\|30.5
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|21-40\|\|27.0\|\|15\|\|42.0		\|\|21-40\|\|26.5\|\|15\|\|41.5
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|41-60\|\|34.5\|\|15\|\|49.5		\|\|41-60\|\|34\|\|15\|\|49
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|61-??\|\|~~39.5~~\|\|20\|\|~~59.5~~		\|\|61-??\|\|40\|\|20\|\|60
	\|}		\|}

Line 283:		Line 283:
	*max crit rank		*max crit rank
	*full damage messages		*full damage messages
	*finalize damage message distribution

HOFMANN58D at 00:55, 3 August 2022

2022-08-03T00:55:56Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:55, 2 August 2022
Line 1:		Line 1:
	I cast 702 on hobgoblins and recorded 1404 successes that generated crit messages, entirely on unwounded hobgoblins who were not stunned. Raw data here [[HOFMANN58D/702_Research_Data]]		I cast 702 on hobgoblins and recorded 1404 successes that generated crit messages, entirely on unwounded hobgoblins who were not stunned. Raw data here [[User:HOFMANN58D/702_Research_Data]]

	<pre{{log2\|margin-right=350px}}>		<pre{{log2\|margin-right=350px}}>

HOFMANN58D at 00:55, 3 August 2022

2022-08-03T00:55:36Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:55, 2 August 2022
Line 1:		Line 1:
	I cast 702 on hobgoblins and recorded 1404 successes that generated crit messages, entirely on unwounded hobgoblins who were not stunned.		I cast 702 on hobgoblins and recorded 1404 successes that generated crit messages, entirely on unwounded hobgoblins who were not stunned. Raw data here [[HOFMANN58D/702_Research_Data]]

	<pre{{log2\|margin-right=350px}}>		<pre{{log2\|margin-right=350px}}>

HOFMANN58D at 00:40, 3 August 2022

2022-08-03T00:40:22Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:40, 2 August 2022
Line 193:		Line 193:

	Using the model gives an average raw damage per cast for a character with 80 endroll before d100 of 23.4.		Using the model gives an average raw damage per cast for a character with 80 endroll before d100 of 23.4.

			.

			Crits follow [[Disruption_critical_table]] in all but three cases:
			*"Strike to the hobgoblin's left/right arm sprains biceps." can cause 3 or 5 critical damage
			*"Throat strike causes the hobgoblin to cough." can cause 2 or 5 critical damage

			Crit rank is governed entirely by success margin, with no effect from damage message.

			{\| class="wikitable"
			\|-
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Success Margin
			!style="text-align:center;"\|1
			!style="text-align:center;"\|2
			!style="text-align:center;"\|3
			!style="text-align:center;"\|4
			!style="text-align:center;"\|5
			\|-
			\|\|1-10 \|\|65% \|\|35% \|\|- \|\|- \|\|-
			\|-
			\|\|11-20 \|\|38% \|\|31% \|\|31% \|\|- \|\|-
			\|-
			\|\|21-60 \|\|- \|\|37% \|\|33% \|\|30% \|\|-
			\|-
			\|\|61-?? \|\|- \|\|- \|\|30% \|\|33% \|\|37%
			\|}

			It seems probable the splits are 67%/33% for the first tier and 33%/33%/33% for all others. This also lets us prove that the apparent duplicate crits are actually rank 0 crits, and the 1-10 range is actually 33%/33%/33% with rank 0 rank 1 and rank 2: between the three crits there are 20 cases where the success margin is 11+, and the lower crit damage appears in 0 of the 20. The rank 0 of the disruption table must be otherwise identical to the rank 1 except for neck and arms, which is not entirely academic since it slightly changes the expected crit damage, which for rank 0 requires us to adjust for frequency of body part hit, deflecting from 5 to 4.7 for rank 0.

			{\| class="wikitable"
			\|-
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Body Part
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Rate
			\|-
			\|\|Abdomen \|\|13.1%
			\|-
			\|\|Back \|\|11.1%
			\|-
			\|\|Chest \|\|12.6%
			\|-
			\|\|Head \|\|06.9%
			\|-
			\|\|Left Arm \|\|11.3%
			\|-
			\|\|Left Eye \|\|01.1%
			\|-
			\|\|Left Hand \|\|02.3%
			\|-
			\|\|Left Leg \|\|05.6%
			\|-
			\|\|Neck \|\|06.0%
			\|-
			\|\|Right Arm \|\|10.1%
			\|-
			\|\|Right Eye \|\|02.7%
			\|-
			\|\|Right Hand \|\|06.0%
			\|-
			\|\|Right Leg \|\|11.1%
			\|}

			Notably, the values for head+neck+eyes sum to 16.8% versus a dev stated value of "a little over 16%" from [[Bolt_spell/saved_posts]] so it's probably just whatever the random body part percentages are. This gives total expected damage of:

			{\| class="wikitable"
			\|-
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Success Margin
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Raw
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Crit
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Total
			\|-
			\|\|1-5\|\|8.7\|\|6.5\|\|15.1
			\|-
			\|\|6-10\|\|14.5\|\|6.5\|\|21.0
			\|-
			\|\|11-20\|\|20.7\|\|10\|\|30.7
			\|-
			\|\|21-40\|\|27.0\|\|15\|\|42.0
			\|-
			\|\|41-60\|\|34.5\|\|15\|\|49.5
			\|-
			\|\|61-??\|\|39.5\|\|20\|\|59.5
			\|}

			.

			.

			Areas left to research:
			*max crit rank
			*full damage messages
			*finalize damage message distribution

HOFMANN58D at 21:43, 2 August 2022

2022-08-02T21:43:38Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:43, 2 August 2022
Line 1:		Line 1:
	I cast 702 on hobgoblins and recorded ~~1405~~ successes that generated crit messages, entirely on unwounded hobgoblins who were not stunned.		I cast 702 on hobgoblins and recorded 1404 successes that generated crit messages, entirely on unwounded hobgoblins who were not stunned.

	<pre{{log2\|margin-right=350px}}>		<pre{{log2\|margin-right=350px}}>
Line 117:		Line 117:
	\|\|A strong strike\|\|-\|\|34%\|\|24%\|\|18%\|\|8%\|\|-		\|\|A strong strike\|\|-\|\|34%\|\|24%\|\|18%\|\|8%\|\|-
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|A painful blow\|\|-\|\|21%\|\|16%\|\|16%\|\|16%\|\|12%		\|\|A painful blow\|\|-\|\|21%\|\|16%\|\|17%\|\|16%\|\|12%
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|Target staggered by strong strike\|\|-\|\|-\|\|23%\|\|21%\|\|16%\|\|12%		\|\|Target staggered by strong strike\|\|-\|\|-\|\|23%\|\|21%\|\|16%\|\|12%
Line 123:		Line 123:
	\|\|A powerful hit\|\|-\|\|-\|\|10%\|\|17%\|\|11%\|\|14%		\|\|A powerful hit\|\|-\|\|-\|\|10%\|\|17%\|\|11%\|\|14%
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|A very painful blow\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|18%\|\|16%\|\|12%		\|\|A very painful blow\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|17%\|\|16%\|\|12%
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|Target staggers in pain\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|3%\|\|14%\|\|12%		\|\|Target staggers in pain\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|3%\|\|14%\|\|12%

HOFMANN58D at 21:40, 2 August 2022

2022-08-02T21:40:34Z

HOFMANN58D at 21:30, 2 August 2022

2022-08-02T21:30:23Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:30, 2 August 2022
Line 76:		Line 76:

	For example, "A powerful hit" can occur on success margin 11 and above, but can only do raw damages of 32 through 34 if the success margin is 21 or above:		For example, "A powerful hit" can occur on success margin 11 and above, but can only do raw damages of 32 through 34 if the success margin is 21 or above:
		⚫	*of 18 observations on success margins 11-20, 8 did 30 raw damage and 10 did 31

	-of 18 observations on success ~~margins~~ ~~11-20~~, 8 did 30 ~~raw~~ ~~damage~~ and 10 did 31		*of 5 observations on success margin 21, 1 did 30, 1 did 31, 1 did 32, and 2 did 33
		⚫	*of 142 observations on success margin 21+, 23 did 30, 32 did 31, 28 did 32, 27 did 33, and 32 did 34

⚫	-of 5 observations on success ~~margin~~ 21, 1 did 30, 1 ~~did 31, 1 did 32,~~ and 2 did 33

⚫	-of 142 observations on success margin 21+, 23 did 30, 32 did 31, 28 did 32, 27 did 33, and 32 did 34

	This effect also truncates the lower range, for example "A strong strike" can occur on success margin 6 through 60, but can only do raw damages of 17 through 19 when the success margin is 41 or above:		This effect also truncates the lower range, for example "A strong strike" can occur on success margin 6 through 60, but can only do raw damages of 17 through 19 when the success margin is 41 or above:
	-of 137 observations on success margins 6-40, 22 did 15 raw damage, 32 did 16, 30 did 17, 29 did 18, and 24 did 19		*of 137 observations on success margins 6-40, 22 did 15 raw damage, 32 did 16, 30 did 17, 29 did 18, and 24 did 19
	-of 30 observations on success margins 41-60, 6 did 17, 8 did 18, and 16 did 19		*of 30 observations on success margins 41-60, 6 did 17, 8 did 18, and 16 did 19

	Raw damages appeared to be distributed symmetrically within any damage messages when taking the constraint of success margin into account.		Raw damages appeared to be distributed symmetrically within any damage messages when taking the constraint of success margin into account.
Line 92:		Line 89:

	Three successes generated results outside of these bounds.		Three successes generated results outside of these bounds.
		⚫	*35 success margin with 42 raw damage

	~~-35~~ success margin with 42 raw damage		*1 success margin with "A painful blow" and 22 raw damage
		⚫	*3 success margin with "A strong strike" and 19 raw damage

⚫	-1 success margin with ~~"A painful blow" and 22~~ raw damage

⚫	-3 success margin with "A strong strike" and 19 raw damage

	In all three cases the hobgoblin was lying down, which is something they do ambiently. Per [[Warding]], "If the target is incapacitated (for example stunned or immobilized), most spells receive +15 to effective warding margin.", so it would appear prone gives some incapacitated bonus for 702, although only +6 would be required to make all three successes fall within the bounds. For future data collection I will ensure hobgoblins are not lying down or sitting, which they also do ambiently sometimes.		In all three cases the hobgoblin was lying down, which is something they do ambiently. Per [[Warding]], "If the target is incapacitated (for example stunned or immobilized), most spells receive +15 to effective warding margin.", so it would appear prone gives some incapacitated bonus for 702, although only +6 would be required to make all three successes fall within the bounds. For future data collection I will ensure hobgoblins are not lying down or sitting, which they also do ambiently sometimes.

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:45, 29 August 2022
Line 283:		Line 283:
	*max crit rank		*max crit rank
	*full damage messages		*full damage messages

			.

			.

			.

			Updates with lesser orc and lesser burrow orc data:

			{\| class="wikitable"
			\|-
			!\|
			!style="text-align:center;" colspan="2"\|Success Margin
			!\|
			!style="text-align:center;" colspan="2"\|Raw Damage
			\|-
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Damage Message
			!\|Min
			!\|Max
			!\|
			!\|Min
			!\|Max
			\|-
			\|\|A weak blow\|\|1\|\|5\|\|\|\|4\|\|4
			\|-
			\|\|A light strike\|\|1\|\|10\|\|\|\|5\|\|9
			\|-
			\|\|A nice hit\|\|1\|\|39\|\|\|\|10\|\|14
			\|-
			\|\|A strong strike\|\|6\|\|60\|\|\|\|15\|\|19
			\|-
			\|\|A painful blow\|\|6\|\|91\|\|\|\|20\|\|24
			\|-
			\|\|Target staggered by strong strike\|\|11\|\|94\|\|\|\|25\|\|29
			\|-
			\|\|A powerful hit\|\|11\|\|92\|\|\|\|30\|\|34
			\|-
			\|\|A very painful blow\|\|21\|\|92\|\|\|\|35\|\|39
			\|-
			\|\|Target staggers in pain\|\|21\|\|96\|\|\|\|40\|\|44
			\|-
			\|\|A masterful strike\|\|41\|\|95\|\|\|\|45\|\|49
			\|-
			\|\|A most painful blow\|\|41\|\|92\|\|\|\|50\|\|54
			\|-
			\|\|Target reels from brutal strike\|\|62\|\|96\|\|\|\|55\|\|59
			\|-
			\|\|A devastating hit\|\|61\|\|96\|\|\|\|60\|\|64
			\|-
			\|\|Massive internal disruption\|\|81\|\|97\|\|\|\|65\|\|70
			\|}

			{\| class="wikitable"
			\|-
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Success Margin
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Min
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Max
			\|-
			\|\|1-5\|\|4\|\|13
			\|-
			\|\|6-10\|\|7\|\|22
			\|-
			\|\|11-20\|\|10\|\|31
			\|-
			\|\|21-40\|\|13\|\|40
			\|-
			\|\|41-60\|\|17\|\|51
			\|-
			\|\|61-80\|\|20\|\|61
			\|-
			\|\|81-??\|\|23\|\|70
			\|}

			{\| class="wikitable"
			\|-
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Body Part
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Rate
			\|\|Abdomen \|\|12.7%
			\|-
			\|\|Back \|\|11.4%
			\|-
			\|\|Chest \|\|14.6%
			\|-
			\|\|Head \|\|06.1%
			\|-
			\|\|Left Arm \|\|10.7%
			\|-
			\|\|Left Eye \|\|01.1%
			\|-
			\|\|Left Hand \|\|02.2%
			\|-
			\|\|Left Leg \|\|06.3%
			\|-
			\|\|Neck \|\|06.1%
			\|-
			\|\|Right Arm \|\|10.1%
			\|-
			\|\|Right Eye \|\|02.6%
			\|-
			\|\|Right Hand \|\|06.0%
			\|-
			\|\|Right Leg \|\|10.1%
			\|}

			{\| class="wikitable"
			\|-
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Success Margin
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Raw
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Crit
			!style="text-align:center;"\|Total
			\|-
			\|\|1-5\|\|8.5\|\|6.5\|\|15
			\|-
			\|\|6-10\|\|14.5\|\|6.5\|\|21
			\|-
			\|\|11-20\|\|20.5\|\|10\|\|30.5
			\|-
			\|\|21-40\|\|26.5\|\|15\|\|41.5
			\|-
			\|\|41-60\|\|34\|\|15\|\|49
			\|-
			\|\|61-80\|\|40\|\|20\|\|60
			\|-
			\|\|81-??\|\|46.5\|\|20\|\|66.5
			\|}

			The crit ranks generated in the 81-?? range show no evidence of being different than the crit ranks generated in the 61-80 range, and the additional body part locations do not change the first tier's (rounded) expected crit damage of 4.7. I have added the additional data to the raw data page, and updated the main 702 page.

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:40, 2 August 2022
Line 1:		Line 1:
	I cast 702 on hobgoblins and recorded ~~1408~~ successes that generated crit messages, entirely on unwounded hobgoblins who were not stunned.		I cast 702 on hobgoblins and recorded 1405 successes that generated crit messages, entirely on unwounded hobgoblins who were not stunned.

	<pre{{log2\|margin-right=350px}}>		<pre{{log2\|margin-right=350px}}>
Line 78:		Line 78:
	*of 18 observations on success margins 11-20, 8 did 30 raw damage and 10 did 31		*of 18 observations on success margins 11-20, 8 did 30 raw damage and 10 did 31
	*of 5 observations on success margin 21, 1 did 30, 1 did 31, 1 did 32, and 2 did 33		*of 5 observations on success margin 21, 1 did 30, 1 did 31, 1 did 32, and 2 did 33
	*of 142 observations on success margin 21+, 23 did 30, 32 did 31, 28 did 32, 27 did 33, and 32 did 34		*of 142 observations on success margin 21+, 23 did 30, 32 did 31, 28 did 32, 26 did 33, and 32 did 34

	This effect also truncates the lower range, for example "A strong strike" can occur on success margin 6 through 60, but can only do raw damages of 17 through 19 when the success margin is 41 or above:		This effect also truncates the lower range, for example "A strong strike" can occur on success margin 6 through 60, but can only do raw damages of 17 through 19 when the success margin is 41 or above:
Line 113:		Line 113:
	\|\|A light strike\|\|55%\|\|12%\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-		\|\|A light strike\|\|55%\|\|12%\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-\|\|-
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|A nice hit\|\|38%\|\|33%\|\|27%\|\|7%\|\|-\|\|-		\|\|A nice hit\|\|38%\|\|33%\|\|28%\|\|7%\|\|-\|\|-
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|A strong strike\|\|-\|\|34%\|\|24%\|\|18%\|\|8%\|\|-		\|\|A strong strike\|\|-\|\|34%\|\|24%\|\|18%\|\|8%\|\|-
Line 119:		Line 119:
	\|\|A painful blow\|\|-\|\|21%\|\|16%\|\|16%\|\|16%\|\|12%		\|\|A painful blow\|\|-\|\|21%\|\|16%\|\|16%\|\|16%\|\|12%
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|Target staggered by strong strike\|\|-\|\|-\|\|23%\|\|20%\|\|16%\|\|12%		\|\|Target staggered by strong strike\|\|-\|\|-\|\|23%\|\|21%\|\|16%\|\|12%
	\|-		\|-
	\|\|A powerful hit\|\|-\|\|-\|\|10%\|\|17%\|\|11%\|\|14%		\|\|A powerful hit\|\|-\|\|-\|\|10%\|\|17%\|\|11%\|\|14%