User:HOFMANN58D/702 Research

I cast 702 on hobgoblins and recorded 1408 successes that generated crit messages, entirely on unwounded hobgoblins who were not stunned.

You gesture at a hobgoblin.
  CS: +81 - TD: +9 + CvA: +20 + d100: +21 == +113
  Warding failed!
  Target staggered by strong strike for 25 points of damage!
   ... 10 points of damage!
   Tendons in the hobgoblin's shield arm snap.
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.

In the following I will refer to "13" as the success margin, "Target staggered by strong strike" as the damage message, "25" as the raw damage, "...10" as the crit damage, and "Tendons in the hobgoblin's shield arm snap" as the crit message.

	Success Margin			Raw Damage
Damage Message	Min	Max		Min	Max
A weak blow	1	5		4	4
A light strike	1	10		5	9
A nice hit	1	39		10	14
A strong strike	6	60		15	19
A painful blow	6	90		20	24
Target staggered by strong strike	11	91		25	29
A powerful hit	11	92		30	34
A very painful blow	21	88		35	39
Target staggers in pain	22	87		40	44
A masterful strike	41	86		45	49
A most painful blow	41	87		50	54
Target reels from brutal strike	62	90		55	59

This is not a complete table: since I only kept hits that caused a critical hit and hobgoblins only have 60 HP, any higher damage message would necessarily not be kept.

Unlike crit messages, whose damage is defined entirely by the message, the raw damage is limited by the success margin as follows:

Success Margin	Min	Max
1-5	4	13
6-10	7	22
11-20	10	31
21-40	13	40
41-60	17	51
61-??	20	60

For example, "A powerful hit" can occur on success margin 11 and above, but can only do raw damages of 32 through 34 if the success margin is 21 or above: -of 18 observations on success margins 11-20, 8 did 30 raw damage and 10 did 31 -of 5 observations on success margin 21, 1 did 30, 1 did 31, 1 did 32, and 2 did 33 -of 142 observations on success margin 21+, 23 did 30, 32 did 31, 28 did 32, 27 did 33, and 32 did 34

This effect also truncates the lower range, for example "A strong strike" can occur on success margin 6 through 60, but can only do raw damages of 17 through 19 when the success margin is 41 or above: -of 137 observations on success margins 6-40, 22 did 15 raw damage, 32 did 16, 30 did 17, 29 did 18, and 24 did 19 -of 30 observations on success margins 41-60, 6 did 17, 8 did 18, and 16 did 19

Raw damages appeared to be distributed symmetrically within any damage messages when taking the constraint of success margin into account.

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Three successes generated results outside of these bounds. -35 success margin with 42 raw damage -1 success margin with "A painful blow" and 22 raw damage -3 success margin with "A strong strike" and 19 raw damage

In all three cases the hobgoblin was lying down, which is something they do ambiently. Per the warding article, "If the target is incapacitated (for example stunned or immobilized), most spells receive +15 to effective warding margin.", so it would appear prone gives some incapacitated bonus for 702, although only +6 would be required to make all three successes fall within the bounds. For future data collection I will ensure hobgoblins are not lying down or sitting, which they also do ambiently sometimes.

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Damage messages are not distributed symmetrically within a success margin range.

Damage Message	1-5	6-10	11-20	21-40	41-60	61-??
A weak blow	7%	-	-	-	-	-
A light strike	55%	12%	-	-	-	-
A nice hit	38%	33%	27%	7%	-	-
A strong strike	-	34%	24%	18%	8%	-
A painful blow	-	21%	16%	16%	16%	12%
Target staggered by strong strike	-	-	23%	20%	16%	12%
A powerful hit	-	-	10%	17%	11%	14%
A very painful blow	-	-	-	18%	16%	12%
Target staggers in pain	-	-	-	3%	14%	12%
A masterful strike	-	-	-	-	13%	12%
A most painful blow	-	-	-	-	6%	13%
Target reels from brutal strike	-	-	-	-	-	13%

Estimating based on symmetry, my guess for the true values is:

Damage Message	1-5	6-10	11-20	21-40	41-60	61-??
A weak blow	10.0%	-	-	-	-	-
A light strike	50.0%	16.7%	-	-	-	-
A nice hit	40.0%	33.3%	22.2%	5.0%	-	-
A strong strike	-	33.3%	22.2%	18.0%	5.0%	-
A painful blow	-	16.7%	22.2%	18.0%	15.0%	12.5%
Target staggered by strong strike	-	-	22.2%	18.0%	15.0%	12.5%
A powerful hit	-	-	11.1%	18.0%	15.0%	12.5%
A very painful blow	-	-	-	18.0%	15.0%	12.5%
Target staggers in pain	-	-	-	5.0%	15.0%	12.5%
A masterful strike	-	-	-	-	15.0%	12.5%
A most painful blow	-	-	-	-	5.0%	12.5%
Target reels from brutal strike	-	-	-	-	-	12.5%

Using this we can generate an average expected raw damage per range, where "observed" uses the observed rate of damage messages and "model" uses my proposed values.

Success Margin	Observed	Model
1-5	8.5	8.7
6-10	15.1	14.5
11-20	20.0	20.7
21-40	26.4	27.0
41-60	33.7	34.5
61-??	39.7	39.5

Using the model gives an average raw damage per cast for a character with 80 success margin before d100 of 23.4.