User:PANGH/Ranged Critical Hits
Title: Status Effects and CMAN Quick Reference
Author: Darcimer
Date Published: 2026-07-15
This page covers how bows and crossbows kill with critical hits: what endroll each bow and crossbow needs for a fatal crit, how often an aimed shot lands where it is aimed, and the kill loops that tested best in live hunting logs.
For commands, roundtime, AS and DS formulas, fletching services, tips, items and sample builds, see The Art of the Bow. This page does not repeat that material.
It is the fourth page in a set:
- Status Effects and CMAN Quick Reference covers what prone, Vulnerable, Staggered and the other conditions do.
- Critical Effects Quick Reference lists the critical rank at which each damage type stuns, knocks down or kills at each hit location.
- Critical Kill Loops pairs melee setups with finishers.
- This page does the same for ranged weapons.
Ranged critical hits in one minute
Every hit has a base rank: the highest critical rank that hit can produce. The critical you actually see is rolled evenly between half the base rank (rounded up) and the full base rank. A base rank of 7 gives a crit of rank 4, 5, 6 or 7, each equally likely.
Base rank = truncate( truncate( (endroll − 100) × damage factor ) ÷ armor critical divisor ). Ranks above 9 are applied as 9, but a higher base rank still raises the low end of the roll.
- Endroll: use the total exactly as the game prints it at the end of the AS line. It already includes AvD.
- Damage factor (DF): set by the weapon (short bow, long bow, light crossbow and so on) and the arrow tip, against the target's armor group. DF and AvD tables: The Art of the Bow. Arrow tips change DF and AvD; shaft wood does not.
- Armor critical divisor: set by the target's armor group, which comes from its armor's AsG: cloth (AsG 1–4) 5, leather (5–8) 6, scale (9–12) 7, chain (13–16) 9, plate (17–20) 11. A leather breastplate (AsG 9) is in the scale group. LOOK at a creature to see what it wears.
- Broadhead and bodkin arrows are 66% puncture and 33% slash. A slash to the eye is fatal from rank 5, a puncture from rank 4; both are fatal to the head from rank 6.
- Weighting. Ranged attacks get critical weighting from INT and WIS (reported as about (INT bonus + WIS bonus) ÷ 6, up to 16), and from sighting beyond the aim cap (see below). Firing from hiding does not add ambush weighting. The tables here leave weighting out, so treat them as a floor; logged kills below these thresholds are weighting at work.
Kill chance per hit by base rank
For a broadhead or bodkin hit that lands on the location, including the slash third:
| Base rank | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eye | 22% | 56% | 67% | 92% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Head | 0% | 0% | 25% | 50% | 60% | 80% | 83% | 100% |
Endroll needed for a fatal hit
Broadhead against cloth, leather and scale; bodkin against chain and plate. The endroll is the printed total, AvD included. Weighting lowers these numbers.
| Eye kill 92% (base 7) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weapon | Cloth | Leather | Scale | Chain | Plate |
| Short bow | 208 | 287 | 279 | 330 | 770 |
| Composite bow | 217 | 240 | 251 | 310 | 567 |
| Long bow | 188 | 230 | 240 | 294 | 506 |
| Hand crossbow | 228 | 287 | 296 | 394 | 614 |
| Light crossbow | 200 | 240 | 251 | 310 | 567 |
| Heavy crossbow | 183 | 230 | 231 | 304 | 506 |
| Head kill 80% (base 9) | |||||
| Weapon | Cloth | Leather | Scale | Chain | Plate |
| Short bow | 239 | 340 | 330 | 395 | 961 |
| Composite bow | 250 | 280 | 294 | 370 | 700 |
| Long bow | 213 | 267 | 280 | 350 | 622 |
| Hand crossbow | 264 | 340 | 352 | 477 | 760 |
| Light crossbow | 229 | 280 | 294 | 370 | 700 |
| Heavy crossbow | 206 | 267 | 268 | 362 | 622 |
- The eye needs about 40–60 less endroll than the head for a likely kill, on every weapon.
- Plate is out of reach. Against plate, ranged kills come from damage, flares or poison, not from the arrow's critical.
Aiming success
An aimed shot first rolls whether it lands on the chosen location. A miss either hits another location or flies wide and does nothing. This formula was shared by players on Discord and is not official; the field results below fit it well.
- Aim skill, hidden = truncate( (Perception ranks + Ambush ranks) ÷ 2 ) + truncate( Ranged Weapons ranks ÷ 4 )
- Aim skill, open = truncate( Perception ranks ÷ 2 ) + truncate( Ranged Weapons ranks ÷ 4 )
- Location penalty = 3 × target level × location modifier ÷ aim skill. Location modifiers: eyes 20, neck 12, head 10, hands 5, limbs and torso 2. The target's level is its actual level, not its level relative to yours; your own level matters only through the ranks in your aim skill.
- Aim total = aim skill − location penalty + d100 + modifiers. Above 100 lands on the location; 50–100 hits another location; below 50 flies wide.
- Modifiers: target prone or sitting −10; target size tiny −10, small −5, medium +5, large +15; crossbow +5 standing, +20 kneeling; sighting adds to the total.
- Cap. The formula as shared says a d100 of 25 or less always fails, capping every location at 75%. One logged run hit the eye on 11 of 11 connecting shots, so this cap is unconfirmed. The aim roll is a separate d100 from the attack roll and does not print.
- Sighting is the ranged counterpart of weighting. It adds to the aim total, and any sighting past the aim cap converts to critical weighting at half rate.
Will my aim land?
Work out your net aim for a location:
Net aim = aim skill − location penalty + modifiers
- Chance to land on the location ≈ net aim %, up to the cap. A net aim of 60 lands about 60% of the time.
- If net aim is 0 or less, the shot will not land on that location. Do not aim at it; fire unaimed or pick a larger location.
- Wides. The formula as shared says a shot flies wide when the aim total is below 50, which would make every shot with net aim under 50 risk a wide. The logs do not fully fit that line: a level 15 archer with net aim of about −45 flew wide on 53% of shots, where the 50 line predicts about 95%. A line near 0 fits that log better. Either way, archers with net aim above 50 saw no wides at all.
| Net aim | 0 or less | 25 | 50 | 60 | 75+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lands on location | 0% | 25% | 50% | 60% | 75% (cap) |
Two worked examples from the field results below:
- Level 15 open archer, eye, same-level target. Perception 15 and Ranged Weapons 34 ranks give aim skill 7 + 8 = 15; penalty = 3 × 15 × 20 ÷ 15 = 60; net aim about −45. Prediction: no eye hits. Logged: 0 eye hits in 34 shots, with 53% wide.
- Level 63 open ranger, eye, level 63 target. Perception 128 and Ranged Weapons 139 ranks give aim skill 64 + 34 = 98; penalty = 3 × 63 × 20 ÷ 98 = 38; net aim 60 before sighting. Prediction: about 60% on the eye, no wides. Logged against disabled targets: every connecting shot hit the eye, with no wides.
Checking it in game: set AIM, fire 20 or more shots, and count. "Flies wide of the target" is a wide; a hit on any other location is a near miss. Many wides and no hits on the location mean net aim is below 0; no wides but few hits on the location mean it is low but positive.
Calculated on-location chance by level
This table is calculated from the formula, not tested. It assumes 2x Ranged Weapons and Perception, plus 2x Ambush when hidden, against a target of the shooter's level, before sighting and status modifiers:
| Shooter level | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden, eye | 5% | 29% | 54% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Hidden, head | 16% | 40% | 65% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Open, eye | 0% | 0% | 7% | 22% | 37% | 51% | 75% |
| Open, head | 0% | 12% | 26% | 41% | 56% | 71% | 75% |
- Hiding is the big aim lever. It adds the Ambush ranks to the aim skill, which puts a hidden archer about 30 levels ahead of an open one.
- Higher-level targets are harder to aim at. The penalty grows with the target's level, so the same archer lands far fewer eye shots on a target 6–8 levels above them, and many more on targets below them.
- Aim persists. AIM stays set between hunts until AIM CLEAR. Type AIM with no location to see the current setting.
Field results
Live Bigshot logs, solo except where noted, 13–37 shots per run.
| Archer | Setup | Targets | Aim | On location | Wide | Kills per shot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level 38 rogue, light crossbow | Hide, sweep, shoot open | 10 levels below | Head | 56–70% | 0% | 0.44–0.67 |
| Same | Hide, sweep, shoot open | 10 levels below | Eye | 74% | 0% | 0.74 |
| Same | Hide, sweep, shoot open | 6–8 levels above, shields | Eye | 32% | 0% (16% shield blocks) | 0.27 |
| Same | Hide, sweep, kneel, hide, shoot | 6–8 levels above, shields | Eye | 69% | 0% (no blocks) | 0.77 |
| Level 15 monk, long bow, open | Fire | Same level | Eye | 0% | 53% | 0.18 |
| Same | Fire | Same level | None (AIM CLEAR) | — | 0% | 0.25 |
| Level 63 ranger, long bow, open, sighted | Fire | Same level, DS 316–377 | Eye | 1 nick in 10 shots | 0% | 0 |
| Same | Moonbeam or Web, then fire | Same level, DS 174–221 once disabled | Eye | 11 of 11 hits | 0% | 0.79 |
What the logs show:
- Eye beats head once the aim can land it. Eye hits killed 16 of 17 times against leather and scale targets at endrolls of 200–400; head hits at 215–270 often did not kill, and "saved by a thick skull" appeared at endrolls up to 389.
- Bad aim is worse than no aim. Below the skill where the eye penalty can be overcome, aimed shots fly wide, and aiming adds 1 second of roundtime unless the bow is at its 3-second floor. Unaimed shots never flew wide and still knocked targets down with random leg hits.
- A knockdown turns misses into kills. On swept targets, shots that missed the head still killed most of the time because the prone target's lower DS raised the endroll.
- Kneeling and re-hiding pay off on hard targets. On higher-level, shield-using targets, the crossbow's kneeling +20 aim and +30 AS and the hidden aim bonus more than doubled eye hits and lifted the endroll by about 40. No shot from hiding was blocked by a shield (13 shots; a small sample).
- Disabling is what makes crits possible against high DS. A same-level veteran's open eye aim was already good enough, but undisabled targets held the endroll near 100. Moonbeam or Web cut the targets' DS by 100–130, and every connecting shot then killed or nearly killed.
Kill loops
Each loop is listed as the game commands in order.
Hidden + crossbow, easy targets
Targets at or below your level, little or no shield.
Commands: HIDE → DISABLER until it lands → FIRE until the target dies.
- AIM set to the right eye. AIM RIGHT EYE (or LEFT EYE- doesn't matter.)
- The sweep brings you out of hiding, so the shot is open, but the prone target's lower DS carries it. Hiding before the sweep did not change the sweep's SMR result.
Hidden + crossbow, harder targets
Higher-level, high-DS or shield-using targets.
Commands: HIDE → SWEEP until it lands → KNEEL → HIDE → FIRE until the target dies, or re-apply disabler and repeat.
- About 2.5 seconds more setup time per target than the easy loop, repaid by much better aim and endroll.
- Kneeling lowers your DS; a defensive spell, small statue or society benefit covers it.
Young open archer
Open archers whose net aim at the eye is near or below 0 (roughly level 40–50 against same-level targets, per the table above).
Commands: AIM CLEAR once, Disable if you can, then FIRE until the target dies. It takes time to get your AIM skill up.
- No wides, 1 second faster per shot unless already at the 3-second floor, and random leg and back hits knock targets down for the next shot. The point is hiding and aiming causes misses and RT.
Veteran open archer
Net aim at the eye of about 50 or more, but targets with high DS.
Commands: AIM RIGHT EYE once. Disabler: Moonbeam (611), Web (118), Sweep, E-wave are all great. FIRE only while the target is disabled;
- Any disabler that drops DS works the same way: a knockdown CMAN, a weapon technique such as Pin Down, or a blunt arrow.
Field checks
For everyone:
- AIM persists. Your AIM setting carries over between hunts. Type AIM to check it before a session, and AIM CLEAR when you mean to fire unaimed.
- Don't fire at a standing high-DS target. If the disabler misses, disable again. Shots into full DS mostly miss or nick.
- Crossbow encumbrance. Light crossbows fire in 4 seconds and heavy in 5, but encumbrance adds time to the cock step built into FIRE. If a light crossbow shows 5 seconds, check ENCUMBRANCE
Add-ons
Flaring fletchings, poisons, blessing and elemental blade are outside this page's model. Flares are separate criticals and do not raise the arrow's base rank; flare charges are limited (12 per flaring material). The one flare that works as a setup is the unbalance flare from dreadnought raptor fletchings, which can knock a target down.
Arrow setups
| Role | Tip | Fletching | Shaft |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knockdown | Blunt | Dreadnought raptor (unbalance flares) | Ironwood; faewood against creatures that need magical ammo |
| Kill, cloth, leather or scale | Broadhead | Storm griffin (lightning), or snowy cockatrice (cold) early | Faewood |
| Kill, chain or plate | Bodkin | Storm griffin | Faewood |
- Bodkin gains DF and AvD only against chain and plate and loses against everything lighter.
- Blunt costs about one rank against broadhead but deals unbalance criticals, which knock targets down.
- Crescent has broadhead's DF and AvD but is mostly slash, so it is never better for kills.
- Ammo properties override the bow's or crossbow's, so a bundle can carry its own flares or blessing. Fletching ranks needed for each service: The Art of the Bow.