User:PANGH/Ranged Critical Hits

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This is a guide, tutorial, or gameplay strategy written by one or more players to better assist others with their gameplay enjoyment. The information presented here may be subject to the personal opinion of the contributor(s), and may additionally require periodic updates to keep current as the game environment changes.

Title: Status Effects and CMAN Quick Reference

Author: Darcimer

Date Published: 2026-07-15

This page covers how bows and crossbows kill with critical hits: what endroll each bow and crossbow needs for a fatal crit, how often an aimed shot lands where it is aimed, and the kill loops that tested best in live hunting logs.

For commands, roundtime, AS and DS formulas, fletching services, tips, items and sample builds, see The Art of the Bow. This page does not repeat that material.

It is the fourth page in a set:

Ranged critical hits in one minute

Every hit has a base rank: the highest critical rank that hit can produce. The critical you actually see is rolled evenly between half the base rank (rounded up) and the full base rank. A base rank of 7 gives a crit of rank 4, 5, 6 or 7, each equally likely.

Base rank = truncate( truncate( (endroll − 100) × damage factor ) ÷ armor critical divisor ). Ranks above 9 are applied as 9, but a higher base rank still raises the low end of the roll.

  • Endroll: use the total exactly as the game prints it at the end of the AS line. It already includes AvD.
  • Damage factor (DF): set by the weapon (short bow, long bow, light crossbow and so on) and the arrow tip, against the target's armor group. DF and AvD tables: The Art of the Bow. Arrow tips change DF and AvD; shaft wood does not.
  • Armor critical divisor: set by the target's armor group, which comes from its armor's AsG: cloth (AsG 1–4) 5, leather (5–8) 6, scale (9–12) 7, chain (13–16) 9, plate (17–20) 11. A leather breastplate (AsG 9) is in the scale group. LOOK at a creature to see what it wears.
  • Broadhead and bodkin arrows are 66% puncture and 33% slash. A slash to the eye is fatal from rank 5, a puncture from rank 4; both are fatal to the head from rank 6.
  • Weighting. Ranged attacks get critical weighting from INT and WIS (reported as about (INT bonus + WIS bonus) ÷ 6, up to 16), and from sighting beyond the aim cap (see below). Firing from hiding does not add ambush weighting. The tables here leave weighting out, so treat them as a floor; logged kills below these thresholds are weighting at work.

Kill chance per hit by base rank

For a broadhead or bodkin hit that lands on the location, including the slash third:

Base rank 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Eye 22% 56% 67% 92% 93% 100% 100% 100%
Head 0% 0% 25% 50% 60% 80% 83% 100%

Endroll needed for a fatal hit

Broadhead against cloth, leather and scale; bodkin against chain and plate. The endroll is the printed total, AvD included. Weighting lowers these numbers.

Eye kill 92% (base 7)
Weapon Cloth Leather Scale Chain Plate
Short bow 208 287 279 330 770
Composite bow 217 240 251 310 567
Long bow 188 230 240 294 506
Hand crossbow 228 287 296 394 614
Light crossbow 200 240 251 310 567
Heavy crossbow 183 230 231 304 506
Head kill 80% (base 9)
Weapon Cloth Leather Scale Chain Plate
Short bow 239 340 330 395 961
Composite bow 250 280 294 370 700
Long bow 213 267 280 350 622
Hand crossbow 264 340 352 477 760
Light crossbow 229 280 294 370 700
Heavy crossbow 206 267 268 362 622
  • The eye needs about 40–60 less endroll than the head for a likely kill, on every weapon.
  • Plate is out of reach. Against plate, ranged kills come from damage, flares or poison, not from the arrow's critical.

Aiming success

An aimed shot first rolls whether it lands on the chosen location. A miss either hits another location or flies wide and does nothing. This formula was shared by players on Discord and is not official; the field results below fit it well.

  • Aim skill, hidden = truncate( (Perception ranks + Ambush ranks) ÷ 2 ) + truncate( Ranged Weapons ranks ÷ 4 )
  • Aim skill, open = truncate( Perception ranks ÷ 2 ) + truncate( Ranged Weapons ranks ÷ 4 )
  • Location penalty = 3 × target level × location modifier ÷ aim skill. Location modifiers: eyes 20, neck 12, head 10, hands 5, limbs and torso 2. The target's level is its actual level, not its level relative to yours; your own level matters only through the ranks in your aim skill.
  • Aim total = aim skill − location penalty + d100 + modifiers. Above 100 lands on the location; 50–100 hits another location; below 50 flies wide.
  • Modifiers: target prone or sitting −10; target size tiny −10, small −5, medium +5, large +15; crossbow +5 standing, +20 kneeling; sighting adds to the total.
  • Cap. The formula as shared says a d100 of 25 or less always fails, capping every location at 75%. One logged run hit the eye on 11 of 11 connecting shots, so this cap is unconfirmed. The aim roll is a separate d100 from the attack roll and does not print.
  • Sighting is the ranged counterpart of weighting. It adds to the aim total, and any sighting past the aim cap converts to critical weighting at half rate.

Will my aim land?

Work out your net aim for a location:

Net aim = aim skill − location penalty + modifiers

  • Chance to land on the location ≈ net aim %, up to the cap. A net aim of 60 lands about 60% of the time.
  • If net aim is 0 or less, the shot will not land on that location. Do not aim at it; fire unaimed or pick a larger location.
  • Wides. The formula as shared says a shot flies wide when the aim total is below 50, which would make every shot with net aim under 50 risk a wide. The logs do not fully fit that line: a level 15 archer with net aim of about −45 flew wide on 53% of shots, where the 50 line predicts about 95%. A line near 0 fits that log better. Either way, archers with net aim above 50 saw no wides at all.
Net aim 0 or less 25 50 60 75+
Lands on location 0% 25% 50% 60% 75% (cap)

Two worked examples from the field results below:

  • Level 15 open archer, eye, same-level target. Perception 15 and Ranged Weapons 34 ranks give aim skill 7 + 8 = 15; penalty = 3 × 15 × 20 ÷ 15 = 60; net aim about −45. Prediction: no eye hits. Logged: 0 eye hits in 34 shots, with 53% wide.
  • Level 63 open ranger, eye, level 63 target. Perception 128 and Ranged Weapons 139 ranks give aim skill 64 + 34 = 98; penalty = 3 × 63 × 20 ÷ 98 = 38; net aim 60 before sighting. Prediction: about 60% on the eye, no wides. Logged against disabled targets: every connecting shot hit the eye, with no wides.

Checking it in game: set AIM, fire 20 or more shots, and count. "Flies wide of the target" is a wide; a hit on any other location is a near miss. Many wides and no hits on the location mean net aim is below 0; no wides but few hits on the location mean it is low but positive.

Calculated on-location chance by level

This table is calculated from the formula, not tested. It assumes 2x Ranged Weapons and Perception, plus 2x Ambush when hidden, against a target of the shooter's level, before sighting and status modifiers:

Shooter level 10 20 30 40 50 60 75
Hidden, eye 5% 29% 54% 75% 75% 75% 75%
Hidden, head 16% 40% 65% 75% 75% 75% 75%
Open, eye 0% 0% 7% 22% 37% 51% 75%
Open, head 0% 12% 26% 41% 56% 71% 75%
  • Hiding is the big aim lever. It adds the Ambush ranks to the aim skill, which puts a hidden archer about 30 levels ahead of an open one.
  • Higher-level targets are harder to aim at. The penalty grows with the target's level, so the same archer lands far fewer eye shots on a target 6–8 levels above them, and many more on targets below them.
  • Aim persists. AIM stays set between hunts until AIM CLEAR. Type AIM with no location to see the current setting.

Field results

Live Bigshot logs, solo except where noted, 13–37 shots per run.

Archer Setup Targets Aim On location Wide Kills per shot
Level 38 rogue, light crossbow Hide, sweep, shoot open 10 levels below Head 56–70% 0% 0.44–0.67
Same Hide, sweep, shoot open 10 levels below Eye 74% 0% 0.74
Same Hide, sweep, shoot open 6–8 levels above, shields Eye 32% 0% (16% shield blocks) 0.27
Same Hide, sweep, kneel, hide, shoot 6–8 levels above, shields Eye 69% 0% (no blocks) 0.77
Level 15 monk, long bow, open Fire Same level Eye 0% 53% 0.18
Same Fire Same level None (AIM CLEAR) — 0% 0.25
Level 63 ranger, long bow, open, sighted Fire Same level, DS 316–377 Eye 1 nick in 10 shots 0% 0
Same Moonbeam or Web, then fire Same level, DS 174–221 once disabled Eye 11 of 11 hits 0% 0.79

What the logs show:

  • Eye beats head once the aim can land it. Eye hits killed 16 of 17 times against leather and scale targets at endrolls of 200–400; head hits at 215–270 often did not kill, and "saved by a thick skull" appeared at endrolls up to 389.
  • Bad aim is worse than no aim. Below the skill where the eye penalty can be overcome, aimed shots fly wide, and aiming adds 1 second of roundtime unless the bow is at its 3-second floor. Unaimed shots never flew wide and still knocked targets down with random leg hits.
  • A knockdown turns misses into kills. On swept targets, shots that missed the head still killed most of the time because the prone target's lower DS raised the endroll.
  • Kneeling and re-hiding pay off on hard targets. On higher-level, shield-using targets, the crossbow's kneeling +20 aim and +30 AS and the hidden aim bonus more than doubled eye hits and lifted the endroll by about 40. No shot from hiding was blocked by a shield (13 shots; a small sample).
  • Disabling is what makes crits possible against high DS. A same-level veteran's open eye aim was already good enough, but undisabled targets held the endroll near 100. Moonbeam or Web cut the targets' DS by 100–130, and every connecting shot then killed or nearly killed.

Kill loops

Each loop is listed as the game commands in order, followed by the hunting line that was tested in Bigshot for players who script. In Bigshot, the prone check is inverted: it passes when the target is NOT already disabled.

Hidden crossbow, easy targets

Targets at or below your level, little or no shield.

Commands: HIDE → SWEEP until it lands → FIRE until the target dies. For a flier, which cannot be swept: HIDE → KNEEL → HIDE → FIRE. 

Bigshot: hide, force sweep until 101(!flying), kneel(flying), hide(flying !hidden), fire(x5)
  • AIM set to the right eye.
  • The sweep brings you out of hiding, so the shot is open, but the prone target's lower DS carries it. Hiding before the sweep did not change the sweep's SMR result.
  • Fliers cannot be swept; `kneel(flying)` and the re-hide shoot them hidden and kneeling instead.

Hidden crossbow, hard targets

Higher-level, high-DS or shield-using targets.

Commands: HIDE → SWEEP until it lands → KNEEL → HIDE → FIRE until the target dies. 

Bigshot: hide, force sweep until 101(!flying), kneel, hide(!hidden), fire(x5)
  • About 2.5 seconds more setup per target than the easy loop, repaid by much better aim and endroll.
  • Kneeling lowers your DS; a defensive spell or sign covers it.

Young open archer

Open archers whose net aim at the eye is near or below 0 (roughly level 40–50 against same-level targets, per the table above).

Commands: AIM CLEAR once, then FIRE until the target dies. 

Bigshot: fire(x5)
  • Bigshot users: also clear the ranged aim list in the profile, or Bigshot sends its own AIM.
  • No wides, 1 second faster per shot unless already at the 3-second floor, and random leg and back hits knock targets down for the next shot.

Veteran open archer

Net aim at the eye of about 50 or more, but targets with high DS.

Commands: AIM RIGHT EYE once. Cast Moonbeam (611); if it fails, cast Web (118). FIRE only while the target is disabled; if both spells miss, cast again rather than firing. 

Bigshot: 611(prone m15), 118(prone m25), fire(!prone)(x5)
  • Set the mana reserves to your pool. fire(!prone) holds shots until the target is disabled, so a missed disabler is recast instead of wasting arrows.
  • Any disabler that drops DS works the same way: a knockdown CMAN, a weapon technique such as Pin Down, or a blunt arrow.

Field checks

For everyone:

  • AIM persists. Your AIM setting carries over between hunts. Type AIM to check it before a session, and AIM CLEAR when you mean to fire unaimed.
  • Don't fire at a standing high-DS target. If the disabler misses, disable again. Shots into full DS mostly miss or nick.
  • Crossbow encumbrance. Light crossbows fire in 4 seconds and heavy in 5, but encumbrance adds time to the cock step built into FIRE. If a light crossbow shows 5 seconds, check ENCUMBRANCE.

For Bigshot users:

  • Ranged aim list. Before each fire, Bigshot checks the target's wounds against the aim list in your profile and sends AIM itself. With only "right eye" listed, a blinded right eye leaves the list empty and it sends a bare AIM. List right eye, left eye, head so it moves on.
  • Flee count. A flee count of 1 makes Bigshot walk away from a downed target whenever a second creature arrives. Use 2 or more.
  • Gate the fire. An ungated fire shoots standing targets whenever the disabler misses. Gate it on the disable, as in the loops above.
  • Stale statuses. The status feed can show a target as immobilized while its DS is unchanged. If shots at a "disabled" target show its standing DS, gate on a more specific state.

Add-ons

Flaring fletchings, poisons, blessing and elemental blade are outside this page's model. Flares are separate criticals and do not raise the arrow's base rank; flare charges are limited (12 per flaring material). The one flare that works as a setup is the unbalance flare from dreadnought raptor fletchings, which can knock a target down.

Arrow setups

Role Tip Fletching Shaft
Knockdown Blunt Dreadnought raptor (unbalance flares) Ironwood; faewood against creatures that need magical ammo
Kill, cloth, leather or scale Broadhead Storm griffin (lightning), or snowy cockatrice (cold) early Faewood
Kill, chain or plate Bodkin Storm griffin Faewood
  • Bodkin gains DF and AvD only against chain and plate and loses against everything lighter.
  • Blunt costs about one rank against broadhead but deals unbalance criticals, which knock targets down.
  • Crescent has broadhead's DF and AvD but is mostly slash, so it is never better for kills.
  • Ammo properties override the bow's or crossbow's, so a bundle can carry its own flares or blessing. Fletching ranks needed for each service: The Art of the Bow.

See also

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